HB + NZ Economic Indicators for Q1-22

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide for 24 years.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists. Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Turley & Co collated HB + NZ Economic Indicators for Q1-22

Download the free access reports:

Refer to our Indicators for 43 key measures tracked by Team Turley & Co.  We have added 4 new metrics within the Q1-22 reports:

  • New passenger vehicle and new commercial vehicle sales for New Zealand
  • New electricity connections for all property categories and for residential properties in Hawke’s Bay

 
Hawke’s Bay’s economy overall for Q1-22 continued to perform well.

Infometrics Q1-22 findings for Hawke’s Bay:

Hawke’s Bay new residential building consents are up 50% in 30 months.  Quarterly retail spending in March 2022 was 10.6% higher than it was for Q4-19, notwithstanding COVID.

Napier Port bulk cargo imports and exports have increased 12.3% and 17% respectively on the prior 24 months.

New Zealand has seen a considerably marked inflation spike to 6.9% at March 2022.  GDP increased from $300b December 2019 to $355b March 2022.  Government spending increases are a reoccurring theme since the onset of the COVID pandemic.

Refer to Turley & Co latest commercial-industrial property market reports, including Hawke’s Bay and NZ cap rates and retail occupancy survey.

Refer to our Indicators page for prior periods metrics.

 

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Hastings & Napier vibrancy ‘extending the narrative’

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide since 1998.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists.  Our People.  Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Hastings and Napier: Investment in growth and vibrancy ‘extending the narrative’

Stuff press release:

Stuff | 6 June 22 | Hastings and Napier: Investment in growth and vibrancy ‘extending the narrative’

 

 

Hastings has undergone a massive revitalisation with more than $100 million of public and private investment in the redevelopment of its heritage buildings and other improvements in recent years.

Revitalisation projects have included street upgrades, creating pocket parks and upgrading green spaces with outdoor seating and eating areas, which had encouraged new businesses to invest in Hastings.

“We’re creating a beautiful, safe, vibrant city with funky green spaces, art and culture, where people want to live, shop, dine out and attend events,” mayor Sandra Hazlehurst said.

Turley & Co in May 2018 was one of only two Long-term Plan submitters on the Hastings’ CBD, and the only substantial submitter.  Pat Turley presented to Mayor Hazlehurst and her Councillors.

He participated pro-bono in HDC workshops and provided property insight.  It led to specialist consultants being engaged and a CBD master vibrancy plan being developed.  HDC is progressing its revitalisation plan and executing a strategy that includes CBD land acquisitions.

 

Turley & Co recent retail property reports:

 

 

Turley & Co contributions and press Hastings CBD:

 

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Hawke’s Bay Retail Sector Holds Its Own | SCOOP

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Hawke’s Bay Retail Sector Holds Its Own

Turley & Co press release:

SCOOP | 19 May 22 | Hawke’s Bay Retail Holds Its Own

 

 

“Hawke’s Bay mainstreet retail occupancy levels continue to outperform the Turley & Co March 2020 pre-COVID survey, according to the Turley & Co latest Retail Property Focus Report.”

“Hawke’s Bay physical stores retail occupancy 2019-2022 is displaying a stable trend and very good resilience to COVID effects and online retail headwinds.”

For more information see Retail Property Focus report and HBT | NZH press.

 

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‘Very good resilience’: Number of empty shops in Hawke’s Bay revealed | NZH | HBT

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‘Very good resilience’: Number of empty shops in Hawke’s Bay revealed

Turley & Co was a contributor to the HBT story subscriber access:

NZH | HBT | 18 May 22 | ‘Very good resilience’: Number of empty shops in Hawke’s Bay revealed

 

 

“The resilience of business owners in Hawke’s Bay has received high praise from one analyst, following a report which highlights the number of empty shops has not increased during Covid.” [according to Turley & Co data]

“The latest survey found that, as of March, there were 33 empty shops out of 510 in those town centres.”

“That equates to a 94 per cent occupancy rate.”

For more information see Retail Property Focus report.

 

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HB Retail Property Performance | Q1-22 Trends

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Turley & Co Hawke’s Bay Retail Property Focus© 

Turley & Co was a contributor to the HBT story subscriber access:

NZH | HBT | 18 May 22 | ‘Very good resilience’: Number of empty shops in Hawke’s Bay revealed

 

 

Download the free access research report:

 

Hawke’s Bay mainstreet retail occupancy levels continue to outperform the Turley & Co March 2020 pre-COVID survey.

The main retail precincts surveyed at the end of Q1-22 are unchanged at 94% overall occupancy.  The same as it was six months prior that was improved by two shops on just pre-COVID occupancy at 93%.

Hawke’s Bay physical stores retail occupancy 2019-2022 is displaying a stable trend and very good resilience to COVID effects and online retail headwinds.

Refer to our survey results report for more details.

Turley & Co Retail Property Focus© recent Press page and links follow.

 

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Nikki Whelpton LINZ Accredited

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide for 24 years.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists. Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Nikki Whelpton LINZ Accredited

Congratulations to Nikki Whelpton on achieving road legalisation LINZ Accredited!

In 1998 Turley & Co was one of the first in New Zealand to be LINZ Accredited for public land statutory actions.

Nikki is a Registered Valuer and Turley & Co team for 7 years.  As well as valuation and property strategy, Nikki undertakes specialist public land projects including regular road legalisation actions for Council clients NZ-wide.

Turley & Co’s four property practitioners are Massey University property degree educated – refer to Our People.

 

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A look at the Hawke’s Bay property landscape | Commercial Property NZ

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A look at the Hawke’s Bay property landscape

This article first appeared to Commercial Property New Zealand and is posted with the permission of the publisher:

Turley & Co Economic Indicators

Turley & Co Commercial-Industrial reports 

 

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x3 HB industrial props sell for $136 million in 5 months | Stuff

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Three Hawke’s Bay industrial properties sell for $136 million in 5 months

Turley & Co commentary …

The sale of three industrial properties in Hastings in the past five months, for a total of $135.9 million, shows there is strength in the Hawke’s Bay economy, says a real estate expert.

Sales of industrial property for more than $24.5m were unusual “and especially so three in five months”, said Turley & Co valuer and property strategist Pat Turley​.

“On average they sold 40 points below a 5.0% return, a value benchmark similar to any large centre in New Zealand,” said Turley.

For more information see Stuff press link:

22 04 22 | Stuff | Three Hawke’s Bay industrial properties sell for $136 million in 5 months

 

 

 

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HB Industrial Trio of Sales $136m

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Three industrial properties sell for $136m | News Release 

Three prominent modern and specialised industrial properties have sold in Hastings recently for a collective $135.9m, reflecting a very strong Hawke’s Bay economy, says Turley & Co valuer and property strategist Pat Turley.

He said industrial property sales for more than $24.5m were unusual “and especially so three in five months”.

T&G Global’s property at Whakatu sold for $79.5m in October in a sale-and-leaseback arrangement, resulting in a 4.4% yield for the new owner.

T&G Global negotiated a 15-year lease for itself and said the sale was to fund its new $100 million automated packhouses, set to be one of the largest in the southern hemisphere.

The 2015-built Miracle Water property at Elwood Road was another sale and leaseback arrangement, with new owner Mackersy Property syndication receiving a 5.0% initial return on its $24.5m January purchase.

The most recent of the three sales were at Hill Road in the Omahu Rd industrial area, involving Mr Apple-occupied specialised coolstores of 18,566 sqm.

The property sold in March for $31.9m with an existing lease of 3 years remaining, reflecting 4.75% yield for the new owner.

Turley said the properties were “apple-industry dominated and export-revenues focused”.

“On average, they sold 40 points below a 5.0% return, a value benchmark similar to any large centre in New Zealand,” he said.

“The initial average investment return for the three sales was 4.6%, with an average of 11 years left for leases or 12 years weighed average.

“The sale valuation factor is at least 140 points better now than it would have been several years ago.

“This would mean the 3 properties would have previously valued in the ballpark of 6.0% or $104m.  The sales at $135.9m reflect an increase of circa 30%.”

Turley said sale-and-leasebacks were a form of debt financing.

“They enable an owner to release capital while striking a bespoke lease that suits businesses requirements.”

He said the Hawke’s Bay industrial property market had performed strongly over the past 5 years while land supply has increased.

“There has been a significant land-use expansion in the Omahu Rd and Irongate precincts, industrial land use expansion at Omahu Road and Irongate, with significant developments in Whakatu and Napier.

“The value of industrial land has increased and is now scarce at certain locations, including Napier and Whakatu.  However, industrial land is overall in good supply in Hawke’s Bay.”

Meanwhile, the Farmers Hastings retail store on Hastings’ Heretaunga St West sold in December 2021 for $26.95m – a 5.45% yield.

“The strong sales are a function of a very strong Hawke’s Bay economy,” Turley said.

But the future was not plain sailing.

“Market change is underway, led by increasing interest rates and affected by Covid-related uncertainty.  Currently, construction costs very high inflation is a property values influence though increasingly an affordability challenge.”

 

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Rakiura + New Zealand Biodiversity Opportunity

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide for 24 years.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists. Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

New Zealand Biodiversity Opportunity

Turley & Co since 2006 is Maraetōtara River restoration Original Sponsor.  Habitat preservation and restoration are only part of biodiversity success.  Predator eradication is the other part.

Pat Turley visited Stewart Island/ Rakiura recently tramping – photos below.  He thinks it is awesome!

“Rakiura bush has little birdlife except for predator-free Ulva Island – that’s a stunning example of what NZ bush would be without predators.

Maraetōtara Tree Trust is very successfully engaged in river habitat restoration for 20 years.  It’s part of ensuring vibrant biodiversity.  Eradicating predators is the other part and an absolutely huge task for NZ that’s totally necessary.

Predator Free New Zealand Trust is a key player since 2013 in making NZ predator-free by 2050.  It is essential that we get it done!

Stewart Island is essentially all bush and lightly populated by people.  It’s beautiful and remote but surprisingly short of native birdlife.  Ulva Island is the reverse, teeming with native birds.  All of NZ should be like Ulva.”

 

 

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Q3-4 21 and Q1 22 Commercial-Industrial Reports | Issue 34

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide for 24 years.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists.  Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Turley & Co Commercial-Industrial reports recent Press page and link below:

22 04 22 | Stuff | Three Hawke’s Bay industrial properties sell for $136 million in 5 months

 

 

 

Download Turley & Co’s three quarters free access market metrics reports:

 

Economic Indicators for Hawke’s Bay and NZ and prior issue Market Reports.

 

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Cranford Hospice brand new $15m home assisted by Turley & Co

Chesterhope new hospice gifted land 5.8 hectares 

Cranford Hospice brand new $15m plus home assisted by Turley & Co 

“A report by property strategist Turley & Co said the age, construction and location of the hospice’s current site in Hastings’ Knight St placed limitations on growth, expansion and modernisation – Hawke’s Bay Today 16 September 2017.”

Team Turley & Co in 2022 is right behind the new Hawke’s Bay hospice at Chesterhope!  Pat Turley is leading the plus $15m new build Building Executive as volunteer chair.  The team and Turley family are delivering and supporting pro-bono professional work for Cranford Hospice.

Turley & Co property strategies work for Presbyterian Support East Coast (PSEC) in 2010-11 was the genesis for a new Hawke’s Bay hospice on gifted land.  That work was assisted by colleague Kurt Richards who now practices at Carter Jonas in the UK.

In 2022 progress towards the New Home for Cranford is gathering great momentum: A place where the people of Hawke’s Bay can receive the best possible palliative care, now, and for generations to come.

Cranford Hospice has embarked on the project to build a new, fit-for-purpose, home for Cranford.  Plans are currently being finalised.  Over $10m has already been raised plus gifted land.

See Hawke’s Bay Today and BayBuzz press:

15 Mar 22 | BayBuzz | New Home for Cranford 

18 Feb 22 | HBT | Hawke’s Bay: Push to build new Cranford hospice takes big step as $10m raised 

16 Sep 17 | HBT | Cranford Hospice seeks community approval before move 

“A report by property strategist Turley & Co said the age, construction and location of the hospice’s current site in Hastings’ Knight St placed limitations on growth, expansion and modernisation.”

12 Aug 17 | HBT | Cranford Hospice finds preferred home

“It was identified as a “future focused” hospice facility, with a report by Turley & Co property consultants revealing that the age, construction and location of the hospice’s current site on Knight St limited the opportunity for growth, expansion and modernisation.”

 

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Promoted: Nikki Whelpton Associate Director

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide for 24 years.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists. Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Promoted: Nikki Whelpton Associate Director 

Congratulations to Nikki Whelpton on your well-deserved promotion to Turley & Co Associate Director.  Our team is very pleased Nikki is taking on this role and the career challenge!

Nikki has been part of the Turley & Co team for 7 years and is increasingly a workgroup leader.  In early 2021, Nikki attained the qualification Registered Valuer and she is working towards further property qualifications this year.

Nikki is involved in almost every Turley & Co commercial-industrial and development land valuation, property strategy and specialist public land project.

She lives in her home district of Central Hawke’s Bay and is a working mum with two school aged children.

Nikki and Pat Turley are mentoring Dayna Campbell who has been Turley & Co team for 4 years, and working towards qualification Registered Valuer in 2022.  The team is also mentoring Stacey Allan who joined in early 2021.

Turley & Co’s four property practitioners are Massey University property degree educated – refer to Our People.

 

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HB + NZ Economic Indicators for Q4-21

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Turley & Co collated HB + NZ Economic Indicators for Q4-21

Download the free access reports:

Hawke’s Bay’s economy overall for Q4-21 continued to perform strongly.  Refer to our Indicators, for 39 key measures tracked by Team Turley & Co.

The median house price for Hawke’s Bay rose to $820,000 for Q4-21, equating to a 57.7% increase on 24 months prior.  Quarterly retail spending in December was 21.4% higher than is was for Q4-19, notwithstanding COVID.

Hawke’s Bay airport passengers increased by 11,300 on the prior quarter (Q3-21), although passenger numbers are 37.3% behind Nov-20.

New Zealand has seen a marked inflation spike to 5.9% at December 2021.  GDP increased from 0.5% Dec-19 to 3% Dec-21.  Government spending increases are a reoccurring theme since the onset of the COVID pandemic.

Refer to Turley & Co latest commercial-industrial property market reports, including Hawke’s Bay and NZ cap rates and retail occupancy survey.

Refer to our Indicators page for prior periods metrics.

 

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Mackersy Syndication Miracle Water Acquisition $24.5m

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New Zealand Miracle Water Sale-and-leaseback $24.5m

Hawke’s Bay commercial-industrial property values have continued to display strong growth.  Investment yields have trended down to all-time lows with coinciding higher property asset values.  Land values including industrial were tracking upwards in 2018-20 and since COVID, land values have firmed further.

The December $24.5m sale-and-leaseback by Colliers including Danny Blair for the New Zealand Miracle Water operations facility 2.5 hectare property at 3 Hanui Road (corner Elwood Rd), was sold to Mackersy Property syndication reflecting a 5% yield.  The initial lease term is 15 years.

Refer to Team Turley & Co for more information.

Turley & Co Economic Indicators

Turley & Co Commercial-Industrial reports 

 

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Push to build new Cranford Hospice takes big step as $10m raised | HBT

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Push to build new Cranford Hospice takes big step as $10m raised

Plans to build a brand new hospice between Hastings and Napier have reached a major milestone with over $10 million now raised for the project.

The fundraising milestone means Cranford Hospice can now lodge a building consent application to build its new home on a donated 5.8ha site along Chesterhope Rd in Pakowhai – between Napier and Hastings.

The long-running hospice is currently based in dated premises on Knight St in Hastings.

The overall cost of the project is estimated at around $15m and it is hoped the new building will be opened by the end of 2024, pending ongoing construction supply issues.

Team Turley & Co is a pro-bono professional services contributor.  Pat Turley is volunteer chair of the Cranford Hospice Foundation Building Executive.

For more information see Turley & Co news post and HBT press link:

22 02 18 | HBT | Hawke’s Bay: Push to build new Cranford hospice takes big step as $10m raised 

 

 

 

 

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Hastings’ most expensive house sold for $1.6m, now used to house three people for Oranga Tamariki | Stuff

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Hastings’ most expensive house sold for $1.6m, now used to house three people for Oranga Tamariki

Turley & Co contributions …

The most expensive residential house in Hastings city last year was purchased by the Crown for $1.6 million and is being used to house three teenagers in Oranga Tamariki care.

The Crown also purchased an adjoining vacant property for $700,000.

Sales data provided by property analysts Turley & Co revealed it was the largest price paid for a house in the city of Hastings, where the average price for a residential house was $784,000.

Turley & Co was a property data analytics contributor to the Stuff story:

22 02 17 | Stuff | Hastings’ most expensive house sold for $1.6million, now used to house three people for Oranga Tamariki

 

 

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UK Commercial Market Outlook January 2022 | Carter Jonas

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UK Commercial Market Outlook January 2022 | Carter Jonas

Kurt Richards, partner at Carter Jonas (former associate director at Turley & Co), UK commercial and economic outlook for January 2022 follows.

Omicron did not prove the adversary that many had feared and does not appear to have dampened investor appetite.  Large swathes of the industrial sector, from large distribution warehouses, to multi-let industrial estates and last mile delivery units, will remain in high demand in 2022.

Key points:

  • Annual CPI inflation rose to 5.4% in December 2021, its highest rate in almost 30 years.
  • At its December 2021 meeting, the Bank of England raised interest rates from the first time since March 2020, moving from 0.10% to 0.25%.
  • Unemployment peaked at 5.2% during the pandemic and has since fallen to 4.1% in September-November 2021.
  • Property investment volumes recovered in 2021, reaching more that £58 billion, up by nearly a quarter on the 2020 figure, and the highest level since 2018.
  • Between February and August 2020, that all-property equivalent yield moved upwards by 33 basis points, peaking at 6.3%. It have since seen a downward shift to 5.4% by December 2021.

 

Carter Jonas | 27 Jan 22 | Commercial Market Outlook

 

 

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Mr Apple Coolstore $32m Investment Sale

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Mr Apple Coolstore at 5 Hill Road Hastings

Photo Bayleys

Hawke’s Bay commercial-industrial property values have continued to display strong growth.  Investment yields have trended down to all-time lows with coinciding higher property asset values.  Land values including industrial were tracking upwards in 2018-20 and since COVID, land values have firmed further.

The $31.86m investment sale in 2022 by Bayleys including Kerry Geange for the Mr Apple coolstore at 5 Hill Road reflected 4.75% yield.  Bayleys’ case study inserted below.

The Mr Apple coolstore of 18,566 sqm on 3.5 hectares is leased only for another 3 years.  If renewals options are exercised, then Mr Apple may occupy the premises for 13 years.

 

Refer to Team Turley & Co for more information.

Turley & Co Economic Indicators

Turley & Co Commercial-Industrial reports 

 

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Housing Intensification Policy Tier 1 Councils

Registered ValuersRegistered Property ConsultantsLINZ Accredited.  Hawke’s Bay-based premium quality valuation and creative property strategy©.  Leading +$0.5b acquisitions-disposals NZ-wide since 1998.  Valuation litigation and commercial property specialists.  Development and public land specialists.  Our People.  Property economy analysts and commentators – for Press.

 

Bipartisan Housing Intensification Thoughts

Refer to Turley & Co LinkedIn Post.

Highest and best use drives private real estate market and developer decisions centered on: practically feasible, legally permissible and market demand.

Permitted higher residential density would be huge.  Bayleys Real Estate points out constrained by insufficient infrastructure, though buyer demand may underpin the necessary investment.

We should increasingly build up and intensify over sprawling out.  The success kicker will be robust urban design standards that ensure community-centric places including trees preservation and other urban liveability measures.

Legally permitted and largely untethered intensification would be a seriously blunt instrument that could cause poor housing outcomes and community disasters.  Private property rights and wealth reallocation at a neighbourhood level could be another consequence.

The two main political parties support the housing intensification bill that they would entrust to the private developer market.  In government, they both substantially contributed to the mess that is the NZ housing market today, including almost two decades of high net migration alongside woefully insufficient corresponding housing and health strategies, policy and planning gaps, and underinvestment.

The Greens supported the bill but want adjustments.  ACT opposed the bill saying it will create urban “chaos”. The NZ Planning Institute CE David Curtis says, “We need to do it, but we need to ensure we do it well.” https://lnkd.in/grG5Qt5x

NZ doing urban intensification design very well will be essential for the housing benefits to outweigh long-term community costs.  Otherwise we could be left mopping up a major mess long after current MPs have retired.

Napier-Hastings are not currently included in the intensification bill’s Tier 1 council areas but they probably should be.

In early 2021 front-footed Hastings District Council published a residential intensification design guide.

Refer to a Bayleys’ take next.

 

Bayleys | 2 Nov 21 | New intensification policy explained

 

 

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